The Importance of Stabilizing the Syrian Pound Exchange Rate for Achieving Economic Stability

Hussein MKIYES

https://doi.org/10.53465/EDAMBA.2022.9788022550420.277-286

 

Abstract: The aim of this article is to measure the impact of the fluctuations in the real exchange rate of the Syrian pound on the key macroeconomic indicators of the Syrian economy during the period 1961-2020 to analyze the role of the real exchange rate in achieving economic stability. Since 2011, the Syrian economy suffered from a devastating war that effected all economic and social aspects of business activities leading to high fluctuations and instability of the macroeconomic ecosystem. During the first 40 years of study, the political stability in Syria has not been translated into economic stability on at the macroeconomic level. Moreover, during the last 11 years, the political instability has worsened the economic situation. To achieve the objective of this study, we applied autoregressive model and simple regression model on a various macroeconomic variables including the real exchange rate. The results show that the real exchange rate has a significant positive impact on the balance of payment, inflation, GDP gap, and negative impact on Real GDP, unemployment rate, monetary supply (M2).

Keywords: real exchange rate, economic stability, Syrian Economy, macroeconomic fluctuations

JEL classification: C22, E00, F3

Fulltext: PDF

Online publication date: 3 March 2023

ISBN: 978-80-225-5042-0

Publisher: University of Economics in Bratislava

Pages: 277-286

 

To cite this proceedings paper (STN ISO 690 and 690-2):

MKIYES, H. 2023. The importance of stabilizing the Syrian pound exchange rate for achieving economic stability. In LÜLEYOVÁ, A. (ed.). EDAMBA 2022: Conference Proceedings. Bratislava: University of Economics in Bratislava, 2023. ISBN 978-80-225-5042-0, pp. 277-286. https://doi.org/10.53465/EDAMBA.2022.9788022550420.277-286